The nightmare scenario for Republicans
…and why 17 GOP Senators will ultimately vote to impeach
There is no question that Donald Trump incited an insurrection against our democracy. Based on this alone, Republican Senators should feel compelled to cast their votes to impeach him and, in the end, at least 17 will likely do so. A few of these Senators, those who have already demonstrated some backbone, will be motivated by a principled belief that Trump violated his oath of office by attempting to overthrow the will of the people. The rest will do so out of self-interest and because they realize the danger Trump poses for their Party — especially if he chooses to seek the presidency in 2024.
It doesn’t take much to figure out that a Trump candidacy four years from now would be a disaster for Republicans. By then, the political landscape will have changed considerably. The public will have been treated to an unending stream of tell-all books from White House insiders underscoring Trump’s unfitness for office. Ongoing criminal investigations and civil suits will have further tarnished Trump’s image. And the full extent of Trump’s relationship with Putin will have been exposed. Most American’s will reject any notion of returning to the Trump era.
But not Trump’s hardcore supporters.
The true believers will retain their cult-like worship of the orange one. They will cling to the idea that the 2020 election was stolen and will dismiss any evidence to the contrary as proof of a vast conspiracy against Donald Trump. Yes, there will be fewer of them, but there might still be enough for Trump to secure the Republican nomination in 2024, especially if he is up against a crowded field of opponents.
As a candidate, Trump will play to his strength. Just as he did in 2016 and throughout his presidency, he will control the topic of debate. Other candidates will be forced to respond to whatever crazy conspiracy theory, racist ideology, or outright lie that Trump tosses into the election mix. His opponents will try to execute an impossible political dance — somehow campaigning against Trump without alienating evangelical voters and far-right supporters. They will fail, either sacrificing general election votes for primary support or the other way around. And the damage won’t be limited to presidential candidates. Every Republican office-seeker, from U.S. Senate to the local dog catcher, will be sucked off message as they are forced to choose sides.
It’s possible that Trump, despite historically low poll numbers, could win enough delegates to secure the nomination outright. Most likely this would lead to a historic defeat in the general election for Republicans at all levels. But the damage could be even more long-lasting if the few remaining moderate Republicans conclude that breaking ties with “the party of Trump” is their only hope for political survival.
It is also possible that Trump could lose to another candidate. That too is a problem for Republicans. Trump is not a good loser. Accusations of voter fraud and rigged elections would surely follow. Trump would no doubt challenge the seating of delegates from states where he lost. His supporters would shout down speakers with endless chants of “stop the steal,” while white mobs from across the country descended on the convention center.
And, of course, there is the scariest outcome of all for Republicans: No candidate gets to the convention with enough delegates to win the nomination outright. America would be treated to the spectacle of Republican delegates literally fighting it out on the convention floor, with the violence covered by every media outlet in the world.
Will Trump actually run in 2024? Of course he will. Unless he is in jail or barred from holding future office, Trump will be a candidate. Trump believes the 2020 election was stolen. Running and winning would be proof of the steal. Then there is Trump’s ego, which is so fragile that he needs the adulation and worship of his supporters. He is not going to sit back and watch as they drift to another candidate. Some might argue that legal issues will keep him from running, but that misses the point — Trump will use his candidacy to deflect these accusations, labeling them as “politically motivated” and just part of the ongoing “witch hunt.”
A Trump candidacy in 2024 is a potential disaster for the Republican Party. You can bet that Mitch McConnell has done the calculations on this. He, and all but the craziest of the Republicans, want Trump gone. Permanently. No serious Republican wants Donald Trump in the race, especially Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley, and the other Republicans likely to run in 2024. McConnell’s challenge? How to find 17 Republican Senators willing to stand up and save their party. No doubt, McConnell will be one of them.
